Prolonged low economic growth could lead to even more economic flight by those with skills and capital, regardless of racial grouping.
Is South Africa’s “radical transformation” from a leader to a laggard in the upper middle-income countries the cause or the result of a brain drain? It is hard to tell. What is certain is that there is an extremely strong inverse correlation.
It is so strong that one can use one statistic to deduce the other – and if high-skilled emigration continues, the country’s decline towards the ranks of the lower middle-income countries will also continue.
According to World Bank data on upper middle-income countries, South Africa’s per capita GDP was 61.1% higher than the average in 1995. In 2017, South Africa was no longer a leader in this band of countries, but a laggard. Our per capita GDP had shrunk to 75.7% of the average.
During this time, the number of SA-born residents in high-income countries (
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